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30 octobre 2009


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Vous parlez de déflation de la dette, mais qu'est-ce que cela veut dire? La dette d'un organisme privé est adossé à ses actifs et l'emprunteur peut être démantelé pour éponger la dette, mais pour les états nationaux, comment éponger leur dette? Et quelles conséquences sur leur organisation interne?


Faire baisser la dette, c'est être moins endetté. C'est le problème américain depuis des décennies : leur solution est de faire baisser le $.
C'est le problème français depuis 30 ans : notre solution (avant l'euro) était la dévaluation.
Aujourd'hui que les monnaies se tiennent entre elles du fait de la mondialisation, ce n'est plus vraiment possible. Il faut donc encourager la croissance (pour les impôts) et l'épargne (pour financer la croissance long terme autrement que par le déficit public).
Ce rééquilibrage est délicat et sera long.
Il y a aussi accepter plus d'inflation, seul moyen de rembourser ne monnaie de singe, mais on sait quand l'inflation augmente, pas comment l'arrêter...


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